Aku Aku

murphy's law unleashed

Scientists working for British Gas have created a mathematical formula describing Murphy's Law: NEWS.com.au | How you can break Murphy's Law (October 8, 2004).

...a panel of experts has provided the statistical rule for predicting the law of "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" - or ((U C I) x (10-S))/20 x A x 1/(1-sin(F/10)). [...] In the calculation, five factors have to be assessed: urgency (U), complexity (C), importance (I), skill (S) and frequency (F), and each given a score between one and nine. A sixth, aggravation (A), was set at 0.7 by the experts after their poll.

So if you want to decrease your chance of failure in any given situation, see which of the variables you can adjust.

3000 year old Turfan Man Pants

Some hipster retailer needs to make replicas of these 3,000 year old horse mounted fighter pants and sell them on Etsy.

 

The pants' basic design is strikingly similar to the pants most of us wear today, but closer inspection reveals the level of engineering that went into designing them. [...] And all of those components were woven as a single piece; there's no evidence of any of the fabric having been cut. [...] The Turfan trousers are an extremely functional design, but they’re also pretty damn fancy. As the weaver was working on that stretchy, roomy crotch piece, they alternated different colors of weft threads to create pairs of brown stripes on an off-white background.

Source credit: The Prepared newsletter

30 years of ideas

Since the early 90s I've been keeping a list of various ideas I've had for software products. It's not an exhaustive list, just the ones that I took seriously for some period of time. There are many others that never made it past the "wouldn't it be cool" concept phase and thus never made the list. Many of these listed below didn't make it much further than a couple of weeks of design and/or proof of concept coding, but some were actually pretty fully realized. Some were collaborations but the bulk were solo efforts. A lot of these read as kind of "so what" now, but at the time I was working on them, they were novel ideas that didn't really exist yet! For instance the genealogy one was a couple of years before Ancestry.com and the like appeared. I recall my beta version of that mapped out the Simpsons family tree since that was one most people knew well at the time.

I would use this list for the common "Prior Invention Disclosure" you provide when taking a new job. I'm starting a new job this morning, and it could well be the job I end up retiring from. I figured I'd retire this list as well, but posting it here for posterity. I might come back later make longer posts for some of these.

• VR app for decorating and sharing 360 media
• VR team sport game that mimics rules of rugby and can include players not in VR.
• VR training app for rugby wisdom
• AR app that allows creating puzzle mazes overlaid in the real world that can be navigated by players.
• AR app that visualizes a heliocentric stable grid of nodes through Earth’s orbit.
• Tool to create & interact with quizzes based on importing a spreadsheet.
• Periodic True/False/Confidence quiz and social system.
• Warehouse Management Tool for creating/processing picklists, and purchasing/printing shipping labels.
• Professional rugby 7s production with specialized pitch allowing multi camera option for viewers.
• Rugby club app for tracking game stats in real time
• Rugby 7s fan site for tracking players/staff across social media, collecting and visualizing data and tournament info
• BideAndSeek tool that takes text input (usually from paste buffer) and uses known patterns to match it to a particular URL. 
• FamilyBank, an Alexa skill that allows a family to manage child allowance balances in Spending/Savings/Charity accounts.
• Tadima/Okaeri mobile app and server system utilizing BT beacons to do tasks when the device nears the beacon.
• Mobile phone based dating app with reverse social graph and in-app economy features. (with Romain David)
  
• ExqCor system for audience-collaborative real time script writing and on stage site-reading.
• Handheld locative devices and support system.                   
• Group notification system with web and voice drive components.
• Online retail management system with general shopping cart and browsing features.
• Online invitation management system.
• Online retailer aggregation system for gift registries.
• Ephemr: way to send ephemeral photos not subject to screenshot capture using biological vision technique.
• EyesOn: system for geolocation photos of a stationary object and aggregating into a fly-through visualization experience.
• Skedu: easy to use conference schedule creation and sharing tool with mobile app.
• iBurn: app for burning man attendees
• Real estate locative software for tracking home sales via user defined neighborhoods.
• Collaborative system for creating, distributing and reviewing instructional audio content.
• Genealogical collaborative online software.
• Personal contact organizational system for “social hubs” (with Joi Ito).
• Collaboration studies interdisciplinary mapping system (in conjunction with The Institute for the Future).
• Travel planning site that aggregates travel fares and lodging rates from a given destination.
• Adult social network with Flash-based interactive creative facilities.
• Sailors social network with educational, trip planning and historical reference facilities.
• Video blogging tools with special integration with programming interpreters.
• System for displaying synchronized videos on mobile devices for multidimensional storytelling or informational purposes.
• iNag reminder system with custom text and voice delivery (in conjunction with Todd Siegel)
• Taste Profile Builder multiplayer game (in conjunction with Todd Siegel)
• Internet loan system that facilitates offering and managing of loans.
• Blank White Server technology that allows user-driven server process customization.
• Systems that assist in strategy and real-time game history analysis for online poker players.
• 3-D anaglyphic (red/cyan) rendering and visualization software.
• Peer to peer social darknet that allows encrypted peer to peer communications via a user relative authentication and authorization system.
• Captcha software.
• Distributed (telecommuting) software engineering, consulting and management processes with a focus on “follow the sun” development.
• Virtual world/real world interface via RPC and audio/visual transmission.
• Online chess game analysis system.
• Photographic virtual tour software assembled from still photos..
• Social network and group messaging system mediated via mobile device and the internet.
• Flash mob coordination system via web network and mobile devices.
• Collaborative educational software that allows creation, sharing and engaging in “pop quizzes” tied into browser and OS activities.
• OpenCinema software that facilitates collaborative script writing, storyboarding, casting, shoot production management, marketing and distribution of cinematic works. Animation/graphical design and display software for decorative LED displays.
• Electronic Lab Notebook for chemists with fast molecular substructure search capabilities.
• Point of Sale retail management system for DOS systems.           

           

Designed By a Tree

I love this concept of creating a font which is carved into a tree and then updated yearly by capturing how the tree has modified it by growing.

 

 

 

Food Delivery 2021

Ran across an interesting project which at initial glance is about food delivery called Free Food. As I explain below, that's free as in speech not beer.

The creator of it, Noah Levenson, has a pretty good intro video:

Given the project name, at first I thought it was about getting food that would be thrown out distributed to hungry folks, but watching the video, it became clear that this is more about being able to order food directly from verified local restaurants on a decentralized trust network and avoiding the (almost criminally) inefficient middle man services like DoorDash, GrubHub, UberEats, etc. The README for the project explains the goals well and has a quick run down on why the middle man food "delivery" apps/services are so bad.

Using a decentralized network (think BitTorrent more than BitCoin) it allows for restaurants owners to verify their ownership of a particular local restaurant and publish their menus. This protects against the type of unauthorized listings and other fakery that the middle man services engage in, so you know you're dealing with the real restaurant. Hungry people can find the menus of nearby restaurants and place orders. Reference implementations of the diner and restaurant clients are shown, although I didn't see the source for them available. Presumably the restaurant uses its existing delivery staff for the delivery, or you can pick up.

This is an interesting project, particularly because it's potential goes well beyond just restaurant delivery. Really any resource that can benefit from decentralized (no valueless middle man required) localized (relevant to you, where you are now) discovery can benefit from this type of system. In theory a delivery drivers could advertise themselves as resources and the system could do the matchmaking. Since the network is decentralized this would mean they wouldn't have to share their fee with a middle man network provider.

I'd definitely give this a shot if it started up in my area. In the meantime there is a better sort of food delivery service that I've been using lately and have been quite happy with. It is called Club Feast (use my referral code dav1 if you try it out!). While it still is a middle man service, they have a twist on it that should benefit both the restaurants and the delivery drivers. It requires you to order your meals hours in advance (it used to be the previous day but in the past month they have been able to move it up to same day). This allows the restaurant and delivery network time to optimize the food preparation and the routes. It is a subscription service, which means you sign up for a certain number of meals a week and pre-pay for them as credits. It lets unused credits stack up and you can pause, so it is fair to the subscriber. The meal credits themselves are $7 each, so the meals are inexpensive although limited to what the restaurant decides to make available for $7. There are tons of options though so that has not been a problem for me in San Francisco. It seems like a great win-win-win compromise for the restaurants, drivers and customers, although I would love for a journalist to investigate and report on the actual outcomes.

Would a robust Free Food network be better than Club Feast? Perhaps? CF optimizes a somewhat different problem, but perhaps that could be layered into FF as well? Is there additional value CF could bring that benefits from its centralization? Not really sure. Some things I am sure about are that both of these are better than the dominant centralized apps, and that Free Food really needs to change its name, and the paltry amount of tests in `libfood` is scary 😂.

 

An Ode to Roblox as a Gathering Place

I haven't spent a lot of time in Roblox, even though both of my kids have spent significant amounts of their time and my money there, but this essay about how it compares to those places where teenagers hang out and create their own space away from the rest of the world really resonates. It makes me want to give it a try again.

Some choice excerpts:

On his first experience in Roblox:

In one of the very first games we played together (a work-in-progress safari game, the link to which I have since lost), V became a zebra, and I was a lioness. We ran around a broad plain populated by other animals, trees in the distance, low clouds overhead, and the buzzing of insects on a 2-minute loop. The chat was full of messages from prey to prey, predator to predator. V was almost immediately killed by a cheetah who then got in the chat to say, “Overyone come to pr,” “theres meat.” Summoned, I did so, and as I ate the still-living digital body of my friend in the company of a stranger in the shape of a wild dog, I thought, “Oh. This is special.”

On the game creation tools:

But perhaps the most interesting thing about Roblox Studio is the Toolbox. Other game engines have assets stores, but none of them feel like this: a rollicking, copyright-fucked, messy, virus-filled, unsortable pile of labor and of love.

On the long tail of forgotten worlds (games) waiting to be stumbled upon:

But the things I am making in Roblox are not what are unique or compelling about Roblox, and the same could be said for most of the big games that populate the platform’s front page. Instead, what is so special here are the millions of bizarre little worlds, all networked together and waiting (mostly empty, sometimes for over a decade) to be dropped into and explored with friends.

On the "brutal" monetization situation:

As a developer, you can monetize your own games in a variety of ways, from the above-board (tip jars! cosmetics!) to the scammy. Developers earn 70% of Robux spent in their games, which is a pretty standard cut for an app store/developer split. However, getting USD back out of Robux is a different story. The payout exchange rate drops to $0.0035 USD per 1 Robux, meaning the takeaway in real world currency is roughly 24.5% of any in-game commerce—a brutally extractive exchange rate.

Fighting Date Rape With Nail Polish

Now that Bill Cosby got an early release from prison, my friend Paul brought my attention to the company Undercover Colors that developed a clear nail polish that allows you to check a drink for drugs by dipping a fingernail into the drink. The nail polish changes colors if drugs are encountered.

Brilliant! And love that it was founded by NC State students (didn't to school there, but did participate in their rugby club as a townie).

 

It looks like the product has evolved slightly to a more typical strip test kit though. I supposed the manufacturing costs proved too high? Hopefully they are still working on the more subtle version.

Post Pandemic Predictions

I started compiling this list before George Floyd was murdered, and its triteness bothers me now so I'm just going to post it and move on.

In no particular order:

• Masks largely stay culturally accepted in flu and allergy seasons from now on in the USA, but will always carry a political connotation so some groups will never wear them and mock those that do, but like punk rockers have always mocked people in suits.
• 15 years from now, a common trope will be determining how old some young adult is by what basic K-12 subject they seemed to have completely missed. "How old is Alexandra? Well she can never remember what a gerund is, she must be 27-28."
• It'll be seen as the inflection point for polyamory going mainstream when the released masses just can't get enough of each other 😂.
• 2021: long hair on dudes is back in fashion.
• The artist live stream phenomenon is too beloved to simply disappear, but outdoor live music venues are going to see a boom. There might even be a combination of the two.